Happy Valentines Day 2013!

Cutest E-Card from Josh's mom to us :-)

Personalize funny videos and birthday eCards at JibJab!

Tomorrow morning is Josh's interview with an Air Force officer to try and get into Officer Training School.  So proud of him for wanting to do this, and hoping he gets in because I know it would mean the world to him.  I really admire his passion.

Whatever happens, at least we'll be going through it together.

Happy Valentines Day, everybody!

Four Modeling Don'ts

Four Modeling Don'ts by M.M.Herlihy

Don't forget.
Pitfall #1: Not Balancing Math and Business—Analysts need to take time to understand the key performance drivers of a business, Herlihy explains, so they can build a model that logically reflects the firm’s market situation and goals. For example, response is dependent on deliverability, but deliverability should be a pre-select before the model is developed and not a variable in the model. In addition, analysts need to be on the lookout for data fields that contain ill-defined content, such as a field that once represented survey responders but in recent years indicated which customers ordered gift packaging on orders.

Pitfall #2: Believing in Quick Fixes—Automated modeling solutions have mass appeal, but can produce lackluster to disastrous results when not handled properly. Even with a “black box” tool, says Herlihy, you still need to know how to interpret the results, run through the appropriate iterations, validate the model and tune the software and settings. Bad models are worse than no models.

Pitfall #3: Not Modeling the Right Thing—In many cases, businesses must drive contradictory behaviors to attract the right prospects and encourage the most profitable customer activitiy. Herlihy gives the example of credit lenders who tend to get the highest responses to offers from individuals who need credit but aren’t likely to pass the criteria for credit approval. Conversely, those individuals who are mostly likely to get approved are least likely to respond because they don’t need credit. Modeling for just response or persistency (conversion/payment) won’t achieve lasting business success; rather, the right thing to do is to develop a balanced model construct to look for those consumers who score well for both behaviors.

Pitfall #4: Inconsistency in Data Storage and Deployment—The wrong data easily can be pulled into a model when the files receive inconsistent coding scores. Some business use a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the worst score and 10 being the best; other firms reverse the scale. Still yet, computer programmers often use 0 through 9 for data storage because it takes up a consistent number of bytes, says Herlihy. Analysts who don’t sufficiently study the database and find out what tagging methodologies are being employed (especially those who are new and inexperienced) are likely to pull low-performing deciles by mistake and build the wrong model. The best practice for businesses to learn is to stick to the same tagging methodology.

A final word of advice from Herlihy: “If you don’t have at least 1,000 of whatever you are trying to model, it is best to collect more data before you invest in the model.”
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Why 0-9 for Scoring:
http://multichannelmerchant.com/lists/archive/data_storage_062507/
"

f you're using 0-9 as your stored decile values – with 0 being the highest score and 10 being the lowest – and you want the top two deciles pulled, records would be pulled from deciles 0-1.

But if you're using 1-10, with 1 being the highest score and 10 being the lowest, there's a good chance the 10 will be mistaken as a 0, meaning you would actually have the best names and the worst names pulled instead.

Say you pulled 100,000 records from each of deciles 0 (with potential revenue of $87,000) and 1 (with a probable $65,250 coming in) for a mailing, the revenue would total $152,250. But if you're using 1-10 as your decile scores, and the bottom decile is mistakes for the top, the potential loss in revenue could be critical."

Happy New Year! 2013 has arrived!

The past couple of weeks have been great!  Josh graduated (finally!) hooray!, my family got to spend some quality time with his family which was nice.  

I am very glad that my parents are so supportive of me and try to just accept my life and who I am.

Christmas was fun.  I got a typewriter! Josh knows my fascination with typewriters and bought one from his grandmother who wanted him to help her sell it on e-bay.  I am very glad to have this typewriter because they are such a sweet family and it's nice to have something of history (and in amazing condition with the original booklets!).  Played a lot with Luke, helped Josh clean/pack some, visited with friends.  One of our previous exchange students from high school came to visit from Italy with her boyfriend so it was really nice spending some time with them as well.

I learned a lot about myself at the end of 2012.

I love my family and I now have a better understanding of our past and how much they sacrificed for me and invested in me.  I am thankful for all they have done, thankful that they persevered despite all odds to stay in this country even when it looked like there were no more options and no more hope.  I am very grateful to be here in this amazing country.  Without the hard work of my parents I would not be where I am today.  I would not have met such amazing people, had such great experiences, and start such an amazing career!

I learned that there are specific aspects of my personality that I can directly see come from my parents.

From my father I have my sense of urgency towards striving to be the best, innovation, curiosity, and thirst for knowledge about anything and everything.  From my mother I get my spirit, stubbornness to go against all odds and against doubts from others, my empathy and sympathy towards others, love of the outdoors, and fearlessness (excluding those really irrational but few fears I have).  From both my parents I have inherited a strong work ethic, a moral compass, an appreciation for what I have, faith in others, and goals to have a purpose in life and make a difference -- to look beyond myself, beyond the present, and to push forward.

So...news...

Josh moved in yesterday.  He and Molly were really worn out (I wouldn't blame him, he's had a rough many many weeks/months and deserved much needed break!) so we didn't really go out for New Years Eve.  We did make a field trip to Liquor Barn though.  That place is so huge! and overwhelming!  We came back with some delicious sparkling wine.  It is gone.

I am very grateful for Josh and look forward for our future.  I know that we are not here together, living together, out of just convenience.  We work well together.  We complement each other - in lifestyle, skills, interests, personality.  Complement does not necessarily mean in common.  But there are things that one is good at/interested in that the other is not.  And we are both interested in a lot of things and are actually handy/good at a lot of things that when they are combined... it makes me feel like there is nothing we cannot do together.  I have faith in him and hope to do whatever I can to encourage him to pursue his dreams because unlike most people i know, he is unusual in the amount of passion he has for life, he has such aspirations and has such a work ethic that I believe he can get to wherever he wants to go.  Even though there are a lot of things he wants to do, I am glad that he has so many options of what he wants/likes to do.  He is very fortunate in that sense.  I can't say that I am like that myself, have specific careers I've wanted with such passion.  Hoping that in 2013 we will continue to support, love, encourage each other, work together, and move forward!

Here's to an exciting and meaningful 2013 of growth and new experiences! Here's to adventure! Welcome 2013!